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    MGM Resorts International (MGM)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 6, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$42.97Last close (Jul 31, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$40.05Open (Aug 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-2.92(-6.80%)
    • Strong Las Vegas performance with record-breaking results, driven by transient group demand and the successful Marriott integration, leading to continued growth expectations in this market.
    • MGM China is outperforming the Macau market, with MGM Macau now the top producer on the Peninsula side, achieving high EBITDA margins and market share in the mid-teens, even as the Macau market has only returned to 80% recovery.
    • Attractive share valuation leading to aggressive share repurchases, with management considering additional financial leverage to fund buybacks due to strong free cash flow growth and low net debt.
    • MGM's digital segment, particularly BetMGM, is underperforming expectations, losing market share in sports betting, and requires continued investment, raising concerns about the effectiveness of their digital strategy.
    • Core gaming metrics in Las Vegas have declined for the second quarter in a row, indicating potential weakness in the core gaming customer base and reliance on non-gaming revenue to drive growth.
    • Increased labor costs due to collective bargaining agreements are pressuring margins in Las Vegas, posing challenges to maintaining profitability despite management's efforts to control expenses.
    1. Formula One Impact on EBITDA
      Q: How will F1 softness affect Q4 EBITDA?
      A: Management acknowledges that the fourth quarter depends greatly on the performance during Formula One. Currently, F1 is off to a soft start compared to last year, with softer ticket and room sales, especially at luxury properties like Aria, Cosmo, and Bellagio. While they hope for improvement, they're concerned enough to note the distinction from last year. They believe other events, like an NFL game, will help fill properties, particularly in the south end of the Strip.

    2. Marriott Partnership Benefits
      Q: What is the contribution from the Marriott partnership?
      A: Year-to-date, they've booked 410,000 room nights through Marriott, with about 60% already stayed. The incremental benefit comes from a $100 rate premium and $50 increased daily spend per room night. Despite a later start due to a cyber incident, they expect the annual EBITDA benefit of $65–$75 million for 2024 remains a good estimate.

    3. Digital Strategy and BetMGM Investment
      Q: Any changes in BetMGM investment outlook?
      A: They believe the identified investment is sufficient and do not anticipate needing more funds. Product improvements are expected to positively impact gross gaming margins. While acknowledging challenges in the digital segment, they are not giving up on digital and see it as key to growth. If investments don't pay off, they are prepared to pull back.

    4. Las Vegas Gaming Customer Trends
      Q: How is the core gaming customer performing?
      A: The core gaming customer remains solid, especially the high-end segment. Revenue changes, particularly in slots, are tied to midweek and convention mix shifts. Rated play is up 4–5% in regional markets. However, the lower end of the database has seen some softening.

    5. Share Repurchases and Capital Allocation
      Q: Will you add debt to fund share repurchases?
      A: Management believes their shares are undervalued and will continue aggressive repurchases. They have $800 million in excess cash and $1.3 billion remaining on the repurchase authorization. They would consider adding financial leverage but don't need to do so currently.

    6. Market Share Gains in Las Vegas
      Q: How do you plan to gain more market share?
      A: Beyond absorbing customers from closed properties like Tropicana and Mirage, they believe there's more share to capture. Plans include targeting the high-end retail and nightlife scene and enhancing properties like Cosmopolitan and Aria to keep guests within their portfolio.

    7. MGM China Margins
      Q: How did MGM China achieve high margins despite a slowdown?
      A: They focused on customer-centric investments and disciplined reinvestment. An increased mass component in the revenue mix contributed to margin improvements. EBITDA margins remain high, and their revenue share is maintained at mid-teens.

    8. Las Vegas Margins and Labor Costs
      Q: What is the outlook for Las Vegas margins amid labor cost increases?
      A: They are comfortable maintaining margins in the mid-30% range. While unit labor costs have increased due to collective bargaining agreements, they've managed expenses well, with FTEs down in Las Vegas. Future labor cost increases are expected to be lower.

    9. Development Pipeline in UAE
      Q: Any updates on the UAE development opportunity?
      A: They are encouraged by recent announcements like the lottery launch. Timing is still uncertain, but they expect more details by the end of the quarter or early next. They're excited about their under-construction property in Dubai, designed to accommodate large-scale casinos.

    10. Las Vegas Capital Expenditure Plans
      Q: Will you defer any planned renovations?
      A: They plan to proceed with major renovations at Aria and MGM Grand. While they consider capital allocation carefully, they believe in continuing room remodels to maintain proper cycles. Anticipated maintenance CapEx will remain around $600–$700 million annually.

    11. Regional Market Trends
      Q: What are you seeing in regional markets?
      A: Middle to high-end customers remain strong. The lower end of the database has seen slight softening, and unrated play is down slightly, partly due to calendar shifts.

    12. Cross-Selling Initiatives
      Q: How have cross-selling efforts progressed?
      A: They've made significant progress in capturing in-market customer spend. Investments in connecting properties and cultural shifts in marketing teams have encouraged guests to stay within their portfolio. Their geographic positioning also enhances this strategy.

    Research analysts covering MGM Resorts International.